What generally triggers an alarm in a statistical outbreak detection system?

Answer

The actual count of cases surpassing a statistically expected threshold

An outbreak detection system operates by applying established statistical models to differentiate genuine anomalies from expected background variations, whether daily or seasonal. The critical trigger point for raising an alarm is when the observed number of incoming cases related to a specific disease or symptom cluster exceeds a predefined, statistically calculated threshold of expectation for that population over a set period. For example, while one isolated case might be normal noise, if the *count* rises significantly above what is statistically predicted for that timeframe and location (such as three cases in 48 hours in the same hospital pool), the system interprets this deviation as a genuine anomaly demanding investigation.

What generally triggers an alarm in a statistical outbreak detection system?

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