For modeling the aggregate behavior of a massive, ongoing epidemic like seasonal influenza across a continent, which modeling approach is favored?
Answer
The continuous SIR model
The choice between continuous and discrete modeling heavily depends on the scale and nature of the epidemic being investigated. For very large populations, such as continent-wide seasonal influenza spread, the continuous dynamics captured by the SIR model provide a robust and stable approximation of the system's overall behavior. The assumption of continuous change allows the aggregate behavior of the massive population to smooth out the stochastic (random) variations inherent in individual contacts. Conversely, a discrete model like Reed-Frost is better suited for the initial seeding stages where randomness in small groups is paramount.
Related Questions
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